The record · Simulated · Unvarnished
Everything below is the output of one historical simulation: the full rule set, run across twelve years of NSE history — 2,716 completed trades in 1,084 stocks, no year excluded, no curve-fitting between years. It is a study of the rules, not a promise of returns, and it should be read with every caveat printed beside it.
Simulated backtest · NSE universe, market cap ≥ ₹500 Cr · entries Dec 2013 – Jan 2026, exits through Apr 2026. Past simulated performance is not indicative of future results.
01 — Year by year
We back-tested the full method across the NSE universe from December 2013 to April 2026 — 2,716 completed trades, no year excluded, no curve-fitting between years. Here is each year of the simulation, next to the Nifty 500.
Simulated returns: every open position equal-weighted and marked to market daily, gross of taxes, costs and slippage, on a survivorship-bias-uncorrected universe. The full-system book averages 190+ concurrent positions — far more than any real portfolio holds — so read these as a measure of signal quality, not as achievable portfolio returns. Tier+ = the subset of entries where the three lenses agreed strongly (341 of 2,716 trades); in thin years it holds very few positions. Nifty 500 = price index, excluding dividends. Hover any year for exact figures. Past simulated performance is not indicative of future results.
Simulated CAGR · 2014–2025
+43.3% vs +14.2%
Full system vs Nifty 500
Years ahead of the Nifty 500
11 of 12
Every year except 2019
Worst year · 2018
−10.1% vs −3.4%
Momentum cuts both ways — we print that too
02 — The Filter
Every entry is graded by the three lenses the moment it fires. Tier+ marks the trades where they agreed strongly. It is a small minority of all entries — and it behaved very differently.
82.1%
Closed in profit
66.1%
Closed in profit
Tier+ · toughest five years
72.5%
closed in profit · median +15.8%
Everything else · same years
31.0%
closed in profit · median −19.0%
Tier+ is not a separate strategy — it is the same rules, filtered to the entries where Alpha, Velocity and Strength agreed. All grades are measured at the entry bar and frozen there; none are revised with hindsight. Toughest five years = 2015, 2018, 2019, 2024 and 2025, the weakest stretches of the simulation. Tier+ is a small cohort (341 trades), and small cohorts carry wider error bars. Simulated backtest, Dec 2013 – Apr 2026.
03 — After Entry
Two findings from 2,716 completed trades govern everything after capital is committed: patience is paid — and weakness shows itself early.
Finding one · The patience curve
Months held
Share of trades closed in profit, by how long they were held. Trades that ran beyond 24 months closed green 96% of the time; trades cut inside 2 months did so only 21% of the time. Read it carefully — this is an outcome of the rules, not a lever: we cannot choose in advance which trades will last two years.
Finding two · The 90-day fork
Position health score = the same composite momentum score used for ranking, recomputed every quarter after entry. Chart shows mean score paths of eventual winners vs losers across 2,716 completed trades.
04 — Recent trades
Not a highlight reel. These are all 21 Tier+ positions the simulation exited between January 2025 and April 2026 — the good and the bad, in the order the rules closed them.
All Tier+ positions exited Jan 2025 – Apr 2026 · NSE symbols
| Symbol | Entered | Exited | Held | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIRUPATIFL | Jan 24 | Jan 25 | 12 mo | +274% |
| NITCO | Jan 24 | Feb 25 | 13 mo | +259% |
| SUVEN | Nov 23 | Aug 25 | 21 mo | +211% |
| PARIN | Feb 24 | Jan 25 | 11 mo | +196% |
| VRWODAR | Mar 25 | May 25 | 2 mo | +111% |
| WOCKPHARMA | Aug 24 | Feb 25 | 6 mo | +58% |
| HINDCOPPER | Dec 25 | Mar 26 | 3 mo | +58% |
| ASIANHOTNR | Dec 24 | Jun 25 | 5 mo | +54% |
| KRISHANA | Jun 25 | Sep 25 | 3 mo | +39% |
| JAYNECOIND | Sep 25 | Jan 26 | 4 mo | +30% |
| SALSTEEL | Nov 25 | Mar 26 | 4 mo | +21% |
| GMDCLTD | Sep 25 | Jan 26 | 4 mo | +20% |
| PANACEABIO | Nov 24 | Jan 25 | 2 mo | +17% |
| GTLINFRA | Jan 24 | Jan 25 | 12 mo | +16% |
| UNIONBANK | Jan 26 | Mar 26 | 2 mo | +11% |
| KELLTONTEC | Dec 23 | Feb 25 | 14 mo | +7% |
| EIFFL | Jun 25 | Aug 25 | 1 mo | −7% |
| M&MFIN | Dec 25 | Mar 26 | 3 mo | −23% |
| HESTERBIO | Jul 24 | Jan 25 | 7 mo | −28% |
| SIYSIL | Dec 24 | Feb 25 | 3 mo | −28% |
| SPIC | Aug 25 | Dec 25 | 4 mo | −30% |
This window · Tier+
16 of 21
Closed in profit · median +21%
Same window · everything else
47.8%
Of all 249 exits closed in profit · median −4.2%
Simulated positions, not recommendations, and not a portfolio — the simulation sizes nothing and holds everything that qualifies. Symbols are shown exactly as they appear in the dataset so any figure here can be checked against the tape. Full trade-by-trade history for all 2,716 trades available on request.
05 — Expectancy
Winners run roughly three times the size of losers — and they arrive about twice as often. That asymmetry, not any single trade, is the whole business.
Expectancy = (Median Win × Hit Rate) − (Median Loss × Miss Rate)
A per-trade average across the simulation — not a return, not a compounding rate, and not what any single position will do.
Tier+ · 341 trades
+57.3%
Expectancy per trade
All entries · 2,716 trades
+39.7%
Expectancy per trade
Every figure on this page is the output of a historical simulation — gross of taxes, costs and slippage, on a survivorship-bias-uncorrected universe. Simulated results systematically flatter reality, and past performance, simulated or real, is never indicative of future results. Rhythm Capital publishes this as an educational study of its rules, not as an offer, a forecast, or personalised advice.